The AI Index put a boundary around cheaper model use
A 2025 Stanford release compared the price of reaching one benchmark threshold across time.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · DraftEvidence & uncertainty
Trace the source, reconcile definitions and preserve the uncertainty that matters to the decision.
THE QUESTION
What does this claim actually establish?
- 01
Turn a contested claim into a one-page decision brief
Convert a noisy research finding into a decision-ready brief without laundering uncertainty into a recommendation.
- 02
Map an independent source chain before counting corroboration
Determine whether apparently broad agreement comes from independent observations or one claim moving through a publication network.
- 03
Audit the denominator before using an adoption number
Prevent incompatible definitions of active, adopted and revenue from becoming a false trend line or market comparison.
- 04
Keep a contradiction log without forcing false agreement
Investigate disagreements systematically and prevent a preferred number from replacing the evidence trail.
- 05
Treat unknown as a research state, not a zero
Make decisions when a critical field is missing without filling it with false precision or quietly excluding the case.
- 06
Design scenario triggers that change an operating plan
Move from narrative scenarios to signals that tell a team when to switch plans, spend, pause or exit.
Put the method against a real case
These dated examples establish specific events or measurements, not current market-wide conclusions.
5 pieces
A record robot stock, with a slower installation year
The 2024 World Robotics release shows why installed base and annual demand answer different questions.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · DraftA 10-K's risk factors say more than its press release
SEC guidance names the sections built for a company's own account of its risks and trends, not for polish.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Google's flu tracker missed high for two straight years
A 2014 Science paper found Google Flu Trends overestimated ILI in 100 of 108 weeks against CDC's surveillance.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A forecast only counts once it has been scored
Good Judgment's own tournament results show what a scored track record looks like, unlike an unscored opinion.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansionNo pieces match. Try another phrase or clear the filters.