Turn a contested claim into a one-page decision brief
A compact format that keeps the claim, its evidentiary status, and the decision it may inform visibly separate.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Find the next useful piece.
Search 237 guides, historical cases, full research documents and scenario sets.
237 pieces
Map an independent source chain before counting corroboration
Trace ownership, origination, derivation and shared data so ten links do not masquerade as ten witnesses.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Audit the denominator before using an adoption number
Define who could qualify, what counted, and when before comparing active users, adopters or revenue.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Treat unknown as a research state, not a zero
A diligence protocol for recording what is absent, why it is absent, and the next-best check that could reduce uncertainty.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Keep a contradiction log without forcing false agreement
A method for preserving competing figures, definitions and methods while still deciding what can be compared.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Design scenario triggers that change an operating plan
Turn possible futures into precommitted branch decisions with observable thresholds, owners and check windows.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Translate a benchmark into a real workflow test
A comparison method for deciding whether measured capability survives your data, people, controls and failure costs.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Set cohort gates from pilot to production
Advance on demonstrated usage, reliability and retention—not launch enthusiasm or an undifferentiated pilot average.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Measure the transition from stated intent to observed adoption
A workflow for following the same eligible population from plans through first use, repetition and retained value.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Set an evidence review cadence by expiry and source change
A governance schedule that reopens claims when time, methodology, context or a named source changes.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Compute bottleneck diligence: from chip headlines to usable capacity
A decision map for separating announced accelerators, qualified systems, powered racks and workload-ready compute.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Grid connection versus generation: stage-gating power projects
A queue entry is developer intent; operating generation requires studies, construction, commissioning and measured output.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Automation deployment economics beyond the robot count
Evaluate utilization, service burden, exception handling and recovery before treating installed machines as productivity.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Shipping transition diligence: follow the fuel, not only the vessel
Compare dual-fuel asset readiness with certified feedstock, production, bunkering and contracted delivery.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Platform policy contingency by confirmed stage
Plan around announced, documented, testable, effective and enforced changes without treating every proposal as a deadline.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19From attention to revenue: build the missing denominator bridge
Connect views and users to eligible inventory, monetized events, yield, payouts and retained revenue.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19A practical QA protocol for retail product assistants
Test claim grounding, catalog freshness, comparison quality, commercial bias and safe failure on real shopping tasks.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Regulatory stage mapping without deadline laundering
Separate proposal, adoption, entry into force, application and enforcement before changing an operating plan.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Reported growth comparability: rebuild the bridge before comparing
Separate reported revenue, currency, acquisitions, divestitures and operating metrics into a reproducible comparison.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19Market sizing from observables: reconcile top-down and bottom-up
Define the market, anchor both estimates in public measurements and investigate the gap instead of averaging it away.
Source-checked guide · Prepared 2026-09-19
A record robot stock, with a slower installation year
The 2024 World Robotics release shows why installed base and annual demand answer different questions.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
Netflix turns its ad plan into an upfront proposition
A 2024 audience milestone was paired with measurement partners and a future technology platform.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
Closing a game acquisition starts the platform work
Microsoft’s Activision Blizzard close established ownership, while catalog distribution remained a next step.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
Chrome’s cookie plan became a moving planning assumption
A July 2024 proposal changed the expected transition path for web advertising.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
Short-form revenue share became one route into a wider creator business
YouTube’s one-year Shorts update separates participation from creator earnings.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
A real-estate rule change moved work upstream of the tour
NAR’s August 2024 practice changes affected the sequence of buyer representation.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · DraftThe farm count fell while the average farm grew
The 2022 U.S. agriculture census, released in 2024, provides a structural baseline for suppliers.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · DraftA renewable buildout forecast exposes the grid bottleneck
The IEA’s 2024 outlook separates expected capacity growth from delivery constraints.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · DraftUNESCO made AI adoption a governance problem for schools
Its September 2023 guidance centered institutional readiness and pedagogical validation.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
Fashion’s product data became part of the ecodesign agenda
The EU’s 2024 framework signaled future product rules while leaving implementation steps ahead.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
Spotify put audiobooks inside a time-limited subscription
The 2023 Premium inclusion changed discovery and rights questions without proving new listening demand.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · DraftAirbnb designed around the group planning bottleneck
The 2024 Summer Release linked booking behavior to shared lists, invitations, and messaging.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
The AI Index put a boundary around cheaper model use
A 2025 Stanford release compared the price of reaching one benchmark threshold across time.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
Enterprise agent expectations outran measured deployment
Microsoft’s 2025 Work Trend Index separated leaders’ plans from reported organization-wide use.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
A strong chip-sales headline hid regional divergence
The SIA’s April 2025 release paired global growth with a mixed regional table.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · DraftElectricity demand became the central energy-growth story
The IEA’s 2025 review measured a faster 2024 rise and identified several drivers.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · DraftA security update became an availability incident
CrowdStrike’s August 2024 root-cause summary exposes the operational risk of fast content deployment.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
An OTC glucose sensor opened a different distribution path
The FDA’s March 2024 Stelo clearance changed access conditions for a defined adult population.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
Brazil’s Tap to Pay launch moved acceptance onto the phone
Apple’s 2023 rollout shows how a payment capability depends on partner apps and merchant onboarding.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
Europa Clipper’s launch began a long delivery chain
NASA’s October 2024 launch set a spacecraft on a route with later gravity assists and science operations.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
Laura Mærsk made fuel supply part of fleet strategy
A named methanol-enabled vessel turned a shipping transition plan into an operating asset.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
Waymo opened a measured slice of Los Angeles
The March 2024 service announcement defined geography, rider access, and the next commercial step.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · DraftY Combinator added another intake window
The January 2025 spring-batch announcement changed the cadence of a startup funding program.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
Rufus entered the product-decision path
Amazon’s July 2024 availability announcement put conversational help next to listing and review data.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · DraftDencun created capacity that rollups still had to use
Ethereum’s March 2024 network upgrade introduced temporary data blobs and a new integration task.
Primary-source checked 2026-09-16 · Draft
AlexNet's 2012 entry cut the ImageNet error rate by ten points
The 2012 ImageNet results table and its NeurIPS paper record a 15.3 percent top-five error rate, well below the next entry's 26.2 percent.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Industry produced most notable AI models Stanford counted in 2023
The 2024 AI Index counted 51 industry-built notable machine-learning models against 15 from academia in 2023.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
ChatGPT's 100 million user milestone was a bank's estimate
A UBS note reported by Reuters, not an OpenAI disclosure, is the source of ChatGPT's fastest-growing-app claim.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Data centre sales became most of Nvidia's revenue in FY2024
Nvidia's fiscal 2024 10-K reports Data Center revenue of $47.5 billion, 78 percent of total revenue of $60.9 billion.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Salesforce priced Agentforce by conversation, not by seat
Salesforce's September 2024 announcement and its FY2025 10-K show a shift to consumption pricing, with new revenue risks.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Gartner forecast public cloud spending near $600 billion
Gartner's April 2023 forecast put 2023 public cloud spending at $597.3 billion, a figure still in progress when published.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Teams daily users passed 44 million as lockdowns began
Microsoft's own March 2020 post defines daily active use and records 44 million users, up 12 million in a week.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
The CHIPS Act put $50 billion behind US chip plants
The 2022 CHIPS and Science Act became law with $50 billion for domestic semiconductor incentives and research, per NIST.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Chip sales hit a record $555.9 billion in a shortage year
The SIA's February 2022 release records 2021 global chip sales at $555.9 billion, up 26.2 percent, amid a supply shortage.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
TSMC's Arizona plan tripled in scale before it opened
TSMC's 2020 and 2022 announcements show planned Arizona capacity and investment growing sharply before first production.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
US cybercrime complaints reported record losses for 2023
The FBI's IC3 recorded 880,418 complaints and over $12.5 billion in claimed 2023 losses, with investment fraud the costliest category.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
DORA's 2025 start date turned an EU cyber rule into a deadline
Regulation (EU) 2022/2554 became directly applicable on 17 January 2025, three months after NIS2's national transposition deadline.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
CrowdStrike's outage cost figures diverge across two filers
Delta's 8-K reports a damages claim of at least $500 million, while CrowdStrike's own filing books $5.1 million in direct Q2 costs.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
ERCOT had nine minutes to avert a wider 2021 blackout
A FERC-NERC inquiry found ERCOT's frequency stayed below the safe band for over four minutes, close to tripping 17,000 MW more generation.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
The US led global LNG exports in the first half of 2023
EIA data put US LNG exports at 11.6 Bcf/d in H1 2023, ahead of Australia and Qatar, with Europe absorbing most of the growth.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
The EU battery law phases its duties in from 2024 to 2036
Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 entered into force on 17 August 2023 but stages carbon-footprint, recycling and passport duties over 13 years.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A 2021 approval opened a weight-management use for semaglutide
FDA approved Wegovy for chronic weight management on 4 June 2021, and its own database shows continued indication expansion since.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
FDA authorised the first mRNA vaccine in December 2020
FDA's Pfizer-BioNTech emergency authorisation, issued 11 December 2020, was reissued six times before 2021 full approval.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Medicare telehealth visits jumped from under 1% to near half
ASPE's July 2020 report found Medicare primary care telehealth visits rose from under 1% in February 2020 to nearly half by April.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
The Fed launched instant payments decades after other countries
The Federal Reserve's 2023 launch notice records 35 live institutions and a goal of reaching more than 9,000 banks and credit unions.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A bank failed in two days as deposits left by phone
The Fed's own review ties Silicon Valley Bank's collapse to interest-rate risk, weak supervision and an unusually fast deposit run.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Artemis I launched later than NASA's own watchdog projected
NASA's inspector general projected an earlier 2022 launch and a $93 billion cost that Artemis I's actual flight helps test.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
NATO put most allies at or above its 2% guideline in 2024
NATO's June 2024 estimates put 23 allies at or above the 2%-of-GDP guideline set a decade earlier at the 2014 Wales summit.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A grounded container ship exposed a shipping chokepoint
NASA satellite imagery and an ECB bulletin both date the Suez Canal disruption to March 2021, without fixing its exact length.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Container freight rates spiked in 2021 and then decayed
Drewry's index methodology and an ECB bulletin both describe the 2021 freight-rate surge; the decay since is the more durable signal.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Service robot sales grew fastest in logistics and hotels
IFR's 2022 statistics record 37% growth in professional service robot sales, led by logistics and hospitality applications.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansionManufacturing construction spending doubled in two years
A Treasury analysis says real manufacturing construction spending doubled from late 2021 to mid-2023, tracked by a Census series.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
California suspended Cruise's driverless permit in one order
The DMV's 24 October 2023 order and GM's 10-K show what a driverless permit signals and what ends it.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Brussels set five different duty rates on Chinese electric cars
The Commission's October 2024 regulation set countervailing duties from 7.8% to 35.3% by producer.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A venture capital monitor recorded a second down year in 2023
The Q4 2023 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor states 2023 US venture investment ran about $71.6 billion below 2022.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A 2024 rule pushed SPAC disclosure toward normal IPO terms
The SEC's January 2024 rule requires SPACs to disclose sponsor pay, conflicts and dilution much as an IPO must.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Arm's IPO prospectus put a number on its China dependence
Arm's F-1 and final prospectus show $2,679 million in FY2023 revenue and one Chinese joint-venture customer.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A pandemic e-commerce jump partly reverted within one quarter
Census data show e-commerce's share of US retail sales rose to 16.1% in Q2 2020, then fell to 14.3% in Q3.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Amazon's own filings show its warehouse footprint nearly doubling
Amazon's 10-Ks show fulfilment and data-centre space near-doubling from 2019 to 2021 as capital spending rose 52%.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
US de minimis shipments passed a billion a year before a crackdown
CBP data and a White House fact sheet trace de minimis parcels from about 140 million to over a billion a year.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
An industry survey priced 2023's returns at $743 billion
NRF and Appriss Retail state 2023 US merchandise returns at $743 billion, or 14.5% of retail sales, under a revised method.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
China's robot density overtook Germany and Japan in 2023
IFR's 2023 density count of 470 robots per 10,000 workers put China third worldwide, ahead of Germany and Japan.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Amazon's 750,000-robot figure spans many kinds of machine
Amazon states it has over 750,000 robots, a total that blends drive units, arms and a bipedal machine into one number.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Humanoid robot pilots in 2024 were announcements, not deployments
Four 2024 humanoid robot announcements ranged from a proof-of-concept program to a maker’s own claim of first deployment.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
The 2023 WGA contract set limits on AI in screenwriting
The Writers Guild's 2023 agreement bars AI-generated text from counting as source material and requires disclosure to writers.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Disney's streaming losses preceded a return to its old CEO
Disney's fiscal Q4 2022 filing showed a $4.0 billion annual streaming loss days before the board reinstated Robert Iger as CEO.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
ESA's 2023 survey found 65% of Americans play video games
A trade body's survey of about 4,000 people, not a census, put weekly US players at 212.6 million in 2023.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
The CMA blocked, then cleared, the Activision deal in 2023
UK regulator blocked Microsoft's Activision deal in April 2023 over cloud gaming, then cleared a restructured version in October.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Unity cancelled its runtime fee a year after announcing it
Unity's own filings show a Q3 2023 pricing change triggered a boycott, a CEO exit, and cancellation twelve months later.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Roblox's 2023 filing paired user growth with a billion-dollar loss
Roblox’s FY2023 10-K reported 68.4 million average daily users and a $1,151.9 million net loss, both up sharply year over year.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Digital ad revenue grew 7.3% to $225 billion in 2023
The IAB/PwC report puts 2023 US internet ad revenue at $225 billion, up 7.3%, with retail media and video leading growth.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Apple's tracking prompt reshaped how advertisers target
Apple required a permission prompt before apps could track users, and Meta's own filings later described the advertising effect.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Brussels named six gatekeepers with a compliance clock
The European Commission designated six firms as DMA gatekeepers, starting a six-month clock toward binding obligations.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansionThe FTC rewrote its rules on fake and paid reviews
The FTC's revised Endorsement Guides took effect in July 2023, shortly before a separate binding rule on reviews was proposed.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
YouTube's payout claim rests on a cited report, not a filing
Alphabet's filings report YouTube's ad revenue by quarter, while YouTube's creator-payout total traces to a KPMG report it cites.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Congress set a divestiture deadline for TikTok's owner
A 2024 law gave ByteDance 270 days to divest TikTok, and the Supreme Court upheld it against a First Amendment challenge.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
NAR agreed to pay $418 million and change its rules
NAR settled home-seller antitrust claims for $418 million and agreed to practice changes that took effect in August 2024.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
US office vacancy climbed to a series record in 2023
CBRE's data put Q3 2023 office vacancy at 18.4%, with prime buildings far outperforming the rest of the market by early 2024.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
The 30-year mortgage rate hit a multi-year high in 2023
Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.79% in late October 2023, a full point above where it stood in 2022.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
FAO's food price index peaked the month after a partial reading
FAO flagged its February 2022 record as only partly reflecting the Ukraine war; its own data mark March as the higher peak.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A cultured-chicken safety finding is not a market approval
FDA's 2022 and 2023 consultations cleared two firms' cell-culture processes on safety, leaving a separate USDA step undocumented here.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A plant-based meat leader's 10-K recorded its first annual decline
Beyond Meat's 2022 filing shows net revenue fell 9.8 percent, citing demand, macro and competitive pressure together.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
The EU's carbon border charge began with reporting, not payment
CBAM's transitional phase from October 2023 requires quarterly emissions reports; certificate purchases start only in 2026.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Copernicus recorded 2023 as its warmest year against a named baseline
ERA5 data put 2023 at 1.48C above the 1850-1900 baseline, with daily and monthly records Copernicus documents in detail.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
The Inflation Reduction Act's energy credits scale with take-up
The 2022 law's clean-energy credits pay per project rather than from a fixed pool, which is why cost forecasts for it have varied.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A carbon credit standards body set a common bar in 2023
ICVCM's Core Carbon Principles, launched March 2023, define ten criteria for a credit label without yet showing adoption.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
The SEC approved a listing mechanism, not bitcoin itself
The January 2024 order cleared eleven spot bitcoin ETPs to list; the chair's own statement disclaimed any endorsement of bitcoin.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
FTX's collapse is documented as a charge, not yet a verdict here
The SEC's December 2022 complaint records FTX's 11 November bankruptcy filing and charges Bankman-Fried with fraud.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
MiCA applied to stablecoins six months before the full regime
The EU's crypto-asset regulation staged its application, with stablecoin rules from June 2024 and full application in December 2024.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
US national test scores show the largest maths decline on record
The 2022 NAEP results record the steepest maths declines in the assessment's history and the first-ever fall in its long-term trend series.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
US undergraduate enrolment kept falling two years into the pandemic
Clearinghouse data show undergraduate enrolment fell again in autumn 2021, with two-year colleges down most since 2019.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Coursera's IPO filings showed how few learners became payers
Coursera's 2021 listing documents show 77 million registered learners against 11,900 degree students and 387 paying enterprise customers.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Shein's EU platform size only became public through regulation
The European Commission designated Shein a very large online platform after it disclosed over 45 million monthly EU users.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Brussels set a 2030 vision for textiles before the rules existed
The EU's 2022 textiles strategy set a 2030 vision for durable, recyclable clothing, with binding rules following later through separate legislation.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
L'Oreal's own numbers show what 'beauty tech' meant in 2023
L'Oreal's 2023 annual report puts e-commerce at 27% of sales and names specific AI tools behind its 'beauty tech' claims.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Recorded music revenue grew again in 2022, subscriptions led
IFPI's 2023 report puts 2022 global recorded music revenue at $26.2 billion, with paid subscriptions the main driver of growth.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A publisher's lawsuit made AI training data a licensing question
The New York Times' December 2023 copyright complaint against OpenAI and Microsoft turned AI training data into a live licensing dispute.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
International tourism reached 88% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023
UN Tourism's January 2024 barometer counts 1.3 billion international arrivals in 2023, with recovery uneven by region.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Air travel recovered almost fully in 2023, unevenly by market
IATA's full-year 2023 data show global air travel demand at 94.1% of pre-pandemic levels, with domestic travel already ahead.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A hype cycle is a placement, not a measurement
Gartner's own page names five phases but does not publish how any technology is placed on the curve.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansionA first jobs print is revised twice before it is final
BLS revision tables show the second and third payroll estimates typically move the total by tens of thousands of jobs.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansionRetail sales data is also a survey, just of firms not people
Census's own methodology page shows a third of monthly retail sales estimates are imputed, not reported.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A forecast only counts once it has been scored
Good Judgment's own tournament results show what a scored track record looks like, unlike an unscored opinion.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Most new businesses do not last a decade
BLS survival tables show under a third of new establishments were open ten years later, in two cohorts decades apart.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
An adoption curve only shows where it has already been
Pew's own tracking shows smartphone ownership rising from 35% to 91% since 2011, but not where a new curve will bend.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
A leading indicator is graded only after the fact
NBER dates recessions retrospectively, so the index built to lead them is scored only months after the fact.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Google's flu tracker missed high for two straight years
A 2014 Science paper found Google Flu Trends overestimated ILI in 100 of 108 weeks against CDC's surveillance.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Moore's 1965 forecast became the industry's own target
The original Electronics article predicted annual doubling for a decade; Moore revised the rate in 1975.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansionA 10-K's risk factors say more than its press release
SEC guidance names the sections built for a company's own account of its risks and trends, not for polish.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Smartphone ownership crossed a majority of US adults in 2013
A Pew survey found 56% of American adults owned a smartphone for the first time, the threshold platforms later built around.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
US crude oil output broke its 1970 record in 2018
EIA data show 2018 production surpassing the 1970 peak, with the 2015 export-ban repeal a preceding, not proven causal, marker.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
The GDPR's application date reached beyond the EU's borders
EU law and a Commission review show how one regulation's application date and extraterritorial reach became a signal other regulators later copied.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Netflix's 2018 content balance sheet outgrew a studio's
Netflix's 2018 10-K discloses content assets and liabilities whose scale, and gaps, a headline about spending like a studio does not capture.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Uber's 2019 prospectus showed a loss its net income hid
Uber's S-1 and final prospectus show 2018 net income was positive only because of one-time gains, while the operating business kept losing money.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansionThe Paris Agreement set a pledge-and-review climate cycle
The 2015 treaty's own text ties its 2°C-to-1.5°C goal to five-yearly national pledges, reviewed first at a 2023 global stocktake.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Amazon's first AWS segment disclosure showed a profit
Amazon's Q1 2015 10-Q broke out AWS as a segment for the first time, already earning more operating income per dollar of sales than retail.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
WHO's pandemic statement became a cross-sector reference date
WHO's 11 March 2020 characterisation of COVID-19 as a pandemic is a documented reference point other sectors' series can be dated against.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
AlphaGo beat a Go champion a decade ahead of forecasts
DeepMind's March 2016 match record and two Nature papers show AlphaGo's win, and how fast it was superseded, both mattered as signals.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
US work-from-home share roughly tripled between 2019 and 2021
Census survey data show the share primarily working from home rose from 5.7% to 17.9%, a different measure from an older BLS telework series.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansionFDA's 2018 grant created a device class for autonomous AI
FDA's 11 April 2018 De Novo grant for IDx-DR created regulation 21 CFR 886.1100 for software that outputs a screening result without specialist review.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Two crashes led regulators to ground a bestselling jet
Boeing's own 10-K dates the FAA's order and the $8.3 billion charge that followed the worldwide 737 MAX grounding.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
The ECB ended eight years of negative interest rates
The ECB's July 2022 decision raised all three key rates by 50 basis points, taking the deposit rate out of negative territory.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Tesla's 2018 filings mark where its production bottleneck broke
Two Form 8-Ks show Tesla's Model 3 output rising from 28,578 to 53,239 units a quarter in 2018.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Boston Dynamics changed hands in a six-month, $1.1 billion deal
Hyundai agreed in December 2020 and completed in June 2021 a deal valuing Boston Dynamics at $1.1 billion, taking an 80% stake from SoftBank.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansion
Chrome set a two-year clock on third-party cookies
Google's January 2020 post promised to phase out third-party cookies within two years, a timeline later revised repeatedly.
Inherited collection · Not reverified in this expansionMacro Context Brief — verified as of 2026-09-15
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Final 25-Sector Roster (v1, pre-ranking)
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-151 — Mission and Definitions
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-152 — The Final 25 Industries: Ranking and Methodology
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-153 — Cross-Industry Taxonomy
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-157 — Trend-Detection Methodology
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-158 — The Trend-Scoring Framework
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-159 — Forecasting and Scenario Analysis
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-156 — Data Sources and Source-Quality Framework
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-1516 — Accuracy, Trust and Research Risks
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-1520 — The Forecaster Layer
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15AI foundation models & compute infrastructure
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Enterprise software & SaaS
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Semiconductors, advanced hardware & quantum
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Cybersecurity & digital trust
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Energy & power systems
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Healthcare, biotech & life sciences
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Finance, fintech & payments
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Aerospace, defense & space
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Industrial manufacturing, supply chain & logistics
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Automotive, mobility & transportation
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Startups, venture capital & private markets
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Retail & e-commerce
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Robotics & physical automation
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Media: film, television & video
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Gaming, virtual worlds & immersive media
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Advertising, marketing & brand
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Social platforms, creator economy & consumer apps
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Real estate, architecture & construction
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Food, beverage & agriculture
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Climate tech, sustainability & carbon markets
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Crypto & digital assets
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Education, edtech & workforce development
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Fashion, beauty & personal care
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Publishing, music & rights-based IP
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Travel, tourism & hospitality
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-1540 — What Is Genuinely Accelerating
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-1541 — What Is Cooling, Declining and Reversing
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-1542 — The Overhyped Analysis
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-1543 — The Cross-Industry Influence Map
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-1544 — Case Studies
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Grid interconnection, not silicon, becomes the binding constraint on compute
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Near-universal AI coding tool adoption with falling developer trust
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Leading-edge foundry concentrates further as TSMC ramps N2 and capex
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Identity is the contested perimeter, and machine identities now dominate it
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15System-operator load forecasts re-rated upward by an order of magnitude
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Incretin franchise trades price for volume as US net pricing resets
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Private credit's first genuine stress test: gates, PIK and shadow defaults
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Starlink doubles subscribers while ARPU falls 22% — satellite broadband is becoming a volume business
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15China's direct share of US imports collapses while connector economies absorb the flow
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15China's export-led growth masking a contracting domestic market
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Evergreen and semi-liquid vehicles as the growth engine of private markets
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15US e-commerce penetration grinds past 17% of retail
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15China's domestic robot makers displace foreign incumbents in their home market
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Non-English content as core platform economics, not a regional add-on
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15The flat 30% app-store commission has been dismantled in every major jurisdiction
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Alphabet, Meta and Amazon take a widening majority of US ad revenue
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Statutory age assurance becomes a standing operating cost for consumer platforms
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Data-centre real estate as the only structurally tight major property type
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Biofuel policy is the marginal buyer of vegetable oil
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Carbon pricing advances while carbon disclosure retreats
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Stablecoin supply plateaus near $305bn after two years of compounding growth
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15US higher-education demographic cliff and institutional consolidation
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Dermocosmetics, professional and value-mass beauty outgrow classic prestige
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Music revenue growth is coming from price, not from listeners
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Short-term rental platforms outgrow both hotels and OTAs
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Phase 1 QA Register
Complete original research document, including evidence, assumptions and limitations.
Inherited snapshot · 2026-09-15Debt- and lease-financed data-centre buildout reaches systemic scale
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordSoftware budgets accelerating while services budgets stall
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordMemory supercycle: HBM-led DRAM/NAND pricing at unprecedented margins
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordIdentity is the contested perimeter, and machine identities now dominate it
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordCapacity markets clearing at administrative caps with physical shortfalls
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordThe incretin franchise trades price for volume as the US net-pricing regime resets through most-favoured-nation agreements, Medicare negotiation and Section 232 tariff conditionality
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordPrivate credit's first genuine stress test: the gap between a roughly 2% headline default rate and a roughly 6% PIK-implied distress rate, and whether it narrows or widens
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordEuropean rearmament converting from budget lines into firm multi-year backlog, and from backlog into delivered hardware
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordChina's direct share of US imports collapsing while connector economies absorb the flow, and the widening gap between customs-measured exposure and value-added dependence
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordMulti-metro paid driverless robotaxi networks: regulator-reported miles, deadhead share and whether the unit economics close
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordThe DPI drought: whether the private-capital layer returns cash to LPs, and by what mechanism
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordUS e-commerce penetration past 17% of retail, and where the retail profit pool sits as the channel shift continues
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordHumanoid robots doing useful paid work at scale: whether disclosed industrial revenue ever appears behind the demonstrations
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordStreaming profitability arriving through price and advertising rather than through more viewing, and what happens when price elasticity binds
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordThe dismantling of the flat 30% app-store commission across seven jurisdictions, and whether the relief reaches developers as supply
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordAlphabet, Meta and Amazon taking a widening majority of US advertising revenue, and what the rest of the value chain does about it
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordStatutory age assurance as a standing operating cost, and where the age signal ends up living
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordData-centre real estate as the only structurally tight major property type, and the two-speed sector it has created
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordFood inflation decoupled downward from an energy-led headline, and whether the producer-consumer price wedge closes upward
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordThe disclosure/pricing divergence: carbon pricing advancing while carbon disclosure retreats, and which side of it the sector's capital follows
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordStablecoin supply after the plateau: whether the $305bn pause is a pause or a ceiling
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordThe recent-graduate labour market: whether entry-level compression stays a match-quality problem or becomes an employment problem
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordThe 2027 margin reset: what happens when the tariff-refund windfall lapses and cotton costs arrive
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordThe price of AI training data: whether court-supervised settlement becomes a recurring licence or a one-off
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordThe jet fuel shock: whether a 31.4% fuel cost share is the new structure or a two-quarter episode
Six conditional branches · to 2030
Inherited judgments · Not a calibrated forecast recordNo pieces match. Try another phrase or clear the filters.