SASIGNAL ATLASCross-industry intelligence / Research desk
SIGNAL ATLAS / RESEARCH DESK

The historical record.

100 existing case files, now connected to the research desk. Dates describe the evidence, not a claim of past site publication.

100 pieces

AlexNet's 2012 entry cut the ImageNet error rate by ten points

The 2012 ImageNet results table and its NeurIPS paper record a 15.3 percent top-five error rate, well below the next entry's 26.2 percent.

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ChatGPT's 100 million user milestone was a bank's estimate

A UBS note reported by Reuters, not an OpenAI disclosure, is the source of ChatGPT's fastest-growing-app claim.

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Data centre sales became most of Nvidia's revenue in FY2024

Nvidia's fiscal 2024 10-K reports Data Center revenue of $47.5 billion, 78 percent of total revenue of $60.9 billion.

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Salesforce priced Agentforce by conversation, not by seat

Salesforce's September 2024 announcement and its FY2025 10-K show a shift to consumption pricing, with new revenue risks.

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Gartner forecast public cloud spending near $600 billion

Gartner's April 2023 forecast put 2023 public cloud spending at $597.3 billion, a figure still in progress when published.

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Teams daily users passed 44 million as lockdowns began

Microsoft's own March 2020 post defines daily active use and records 44 million users, up 12 million in a week.

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The CHIPS Act put $50 billion behind US chip plants

The 2022 CHIPS and Science Act became law with $50 billion for domestic semiconductor incentives and research, per NIST.

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Chip sales hit a record $555.9 billion in a shortage year

The SIA's February 2022 release records 2021 global chip sales at $555.9 billion, up 26.2 percent, amid a supply shortage.

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TSMC's Arizona plan tripled in scale before it opened

TSMC's 2020 and 2022 announcements show planned Arizona capacity and investment growing sharply before first production.

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US cybercrime complaints reported record losses for 2023

The FBI's IC3 recorded 880,418 complaints and over $12.5 billion in claimed 2023 losses, with investment fraud the costliest category.

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DORA's 2025 start date turned an EU cyber rule into a deadline

Regulation (EU) 2022/2554 became directly applicable on 17 January 2025, three months after NIS2's national transposition deadline.

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CrowdStrike's outage cost figures diverge across two filers

Delta's 8-K reports a damages claim of at least $500 million, while CrowdStrike's own filing books $5.1 million in direct Q2 costs.

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ERCOT had nine minutes to avert a wider 2021 blackout

A FERC-NERC inquiry found ERCOT's frequency stayed below the safe band for over four minutes, close to tripping 17,000 MW more generation.

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The US led global LNG exports in the first half of 2023

EIA data put US LNG exports at 11.6 Bcf/d in H1 2023, ahead of Australia and Qatar, with Europe absorbing most of the growth.

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The EU battery law phases its duties in from 2024 to 2036

Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 entered into force on 17 August 2023 but stages carbon-footprint, recycling and passport duties over 13 years.

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A 2021 approval opened a weight-management use for semaglutide

FDA approved Wegovy for chronic weight management on 4 June 2021, and its own database shows continued indication expansion since.

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FDA authorised the first mRNA vaccine in December 2020

FDA's Pfizer-BioNTech emergency authorisation, issued 11 December 2020, was reissued six times before 2021 full approval.

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Medicare telehealth visits jumped from under 1% to near half

ASPE's July 2020 report found Medicare primary care telehealth visits rose from under 1% in February 2020 to nearly half by April.

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The Fed launched instant payments decades after other countries

The Federal Reserve's 2023 launch notice records 35 live institutions and a goal of reaching more than 9,000 banks and credit unions.

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A bank failed in two days as deposits left by phone

The Fed's own review ties Silicon Valley Bank's collapse to interest-rate risk, weak supervision and an unusually fast deposit run.

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Artemis I launched later than NASA's own watchdog projected

NASA's inspector general projected an earlier 2022 launch and a $93 billion cost that Artemis I's actual flight helps test.

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NATO put most allies at or above its 2% guideline in 2024

NATO's June 2024 estimates put 23 allies at or above the 2%-of-GDP guideline set a decade earlier at the 2014 Wales summit.

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A grounded container ship exposed a shipping chokepoint

NASA satellite imagery and an ECB bulletin both date the Suez Canal disruption to March 2021, without fixing its exact length.

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Container freight rates spiked in 2021 and then decayed

Drewry's index methodology and an ECB bulletin both describe the 2021 freight-rate surge; the decay since is the more durable signal.

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Service robot sales grew fastest in logistics and hotels

IFR's 2022 statistics record 37% growth in professional service robot sales, led by logistics and hospitality applications.

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Manufacturing construction spending doubled in two years

A Treasury analysis says real manufacturing construction spending doubled from late 2021 to mid-2023, tracked by a Census series.

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A 2024 rule pushed SPAC disclosure toward normal IPO terms

The SEC's January 2024 rule requires SPACs to disclose sponsor pay, conflicts and dilution much as an IPO must.

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Arm's IPO prospectus put a number on its China dependence

Arm's F-1 and final prospectus show $2,679 million in FY2023 revenue and one Chinese joint-venture customer.

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An industry survey priced 2023's returns at $743 billion

NRF and Appriss Retail state 2023 US merchandise returns at $743 billion, or 14.5% of retail sales, under a revised method.

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China's robot density overtook Germany and Japan in 2023

IFR's 2023 density count of 470 robots per 10,000 workers put China third worldwide, ahead of Germany and Japan.

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The 2023 WGA contract set limits on AI in screenwriting

The Writers Guild's 2023 agreement bars AI-generated text from counting as source material and requires disclosure to writers.

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Disney's streaming losses preceded a return to its old CEO

Disney's fiscal Q4 2022 filing showed a $4.0 billion annual streaming loss days before the board reinstated Robert Iger as CEO.

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ESA's 2023 survey found 65% of Americans play video games

A trade body's survey of about 4,000 people, not a census, put weekly US players at 212.6 million in 2023.

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The CMA blocked, then cleared, the Activision deal in 2023

UK regulator blocked Microsoft's Activision deal in April 2023 over cloud gaming, then cleared a restructured version in October.

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Unity cancelled its runtime fee a year after announcing it

Unity's own filings show a Q3 2023 pricing change triggered a boycott, a CEO exit, and cancellation twelve months later.

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Digital ad revenue grew 7.3% to $225 billion in 2023

The IAB/PwC report puts 2023 US internet ad revenue at $225 billion, up 7.3%, with retail media and video leading growth.

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Apple's tracking prompt reshaped how advertisers target

Apple required a permission prompt before apps could track users, and Meta's own filings later described the advertising effect.

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Brussels named six gatekeepers with a compliance clock

The European Commission designated six firms as DMA gatekeepers, starting a six-month clock toward binding obligations.

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The FTC rewrote its rules on fake and paid reviews

The FTC's revised Endorsement Guides took effect in July 2023, shortly before a separate binding rule on reviews was proposed.

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YouTube's payout claim rests on a cited report, not a filing

Alphabet's filings report YouTube's ad revenue by quarter, while YouTube's creator-payout total traces to a KPMG report it cites.

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Congress set a divestiture deadline for TikTok's owner

A 2024 law gave ByteDance 270 days to divest TikTok, and the Supreme Court upheld it against a First Amendment challenge.

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NAR agreed to pay $418 million and change its rules

NAR settled home-seller antitrust claims for $418 million and agreed to practice changes that took effect in August 2024.

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US office vacancy climbed to a series record in 2023

CBRE's data put Q3 2023 office vacancy at 18.4%, with prime buildings far outperforming the rest of the market by early 2024.

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The 30-year mortgage rate hit a multi-year high in 2023

Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.79% in late October 2023, a full point above where it stood in 2022.

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A cultured-chicken safety finding is not a market approval

FDA's 2022 and 2023 consultations cleared two firms' cell-culture processes on safety, leaving a separate USDA step undocumented here.

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The EU's carbon border charge began with reporting, not payment

CBAM's transitional phase from October 2023 requires quarterly emissions reports; certificate purchases start only in 2026.

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The Inflation Reduction Act's energy credits scale with take-up

The 2022 law's clean-energy credits pay per project rather than from a fixed pool, which is why cost forecasts for it have varied.

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A carbon credit standards body set a common bar in 2023

ICVCM's Core Carbon Principles, launched March 2023, define ten criteria for a credit label without yet showing adoption.

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The SEC approved a listing mechanism, not bitcoin itself

The January 2024 order cleared eleven spot bitcoin ETPs to list; the chair's own statement disclaimed any endorsement of bitcoin.

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MiCA applied to stablecoins six months before the full regime

The EU's crypto-asset regulation staged its application, with stablecoin rules from June 2024 and full application in December 2024.

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US national test scores show the largest maths decline on record

The 2022 NAEP results record the steepest maths declines in the assessment's history and the first-ever fall in its long-term trend series.

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Coursera's IPO filings showed how few learners became payers

Coursera's 2021 listing documents show 77 million registered learners against 11,900 degree students and 387 paying enterprise customers.

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Shein's EU platform size only became public through regulation

The European Commission designated Shein a very large online platform after it disclosed over 45 million monthly EU users.

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Brussels set a 2030 vision for textiles before the rules existed

The EU's 2022 textiles strategy set a 2030 vision for durable, recyclable clothing, with binding rules following later through separate legislation.

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Recorded music revenue grew again in 2022, subscriptions led

IFPI's 2023 report puts 2022 global recorded music revenue at $26.2 billion, with paid subscriptions the main driver of growth.

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A publisher's lawsuit made AI training data a licensing question

The New York Times' December 2023 copyright complaint against OpenAI and Microsoft turned AI training data into a live licensing dispute.

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Air travel recovered almost fully in 2023, unevenly by market

IATA's full-year 2023 data show global air travel demand at 94.1% of pre-pandemic levels, with domestic travel already ahead.

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A hype cycle is a placement, not a measurement

Gartner's own page names five phases but does not publish how any technology is placed on the curve.

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A first jobs print is revised twice before it is final

BLS revision tables show the second and third payroll estimates typically move the total by tens of thousands of jobs.

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A forecast only counts once it has been scored

Good Judgment's own tournament results show what a scored track record looks like, unlike an unscored opinion.

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Most new businesses do not last a decade

BLS survival tables show under a third of new establishments were open ten years later, in two cohorts decades apart.

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An adoption curve only shows where it has already been

Pew's own tracking shows smartphone ownership rising from 35% to 91% since 2011, but not where a new curve will bend.

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A leading indicator is graded only after the fact

NBER dates recessions retrospectively, so the index built to lead them is scored only months after the fact.

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Google's flu tracker missed high for two straight years

A 2014 Science paper found Google Flu Trends overestimated ILI in 100 of 108 weeks against CDC's surveillance.

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Moore's 1965 forecast became the industry's own target

The original Electronics article predicted annual doubling for a decade; Moore revised the rate in 1975.

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A 10-K's risk factors say more than its press release

SEC guidance names the sections built for a company's own account of its risks and trends, not for polish.

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Smartphone ownership crossed a majority of US adults in 2013

A Pew survey found 56% of American adults owned a smartphone for the first time, the threshold platforms later built around.

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US crude oil output broke its 1970 record in 2018

EIA data show 2018 production surpassing the 1970 peak, with the 2015 export-ban repeal a preceding, not proven causal, marker.

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The GDPR's application date reached beyond the EU's borders

EU law and a Commission review show how one regulation's application date and extraterritorial reach became a signal other regulators later copied.

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Netflix's 2018 content balance sheet outgrew a studio's

Netflix's 2018 10-K discloses content assets and liabilities whose scale, and gaps, a headline about spending like a studio does not capture.

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Uber's 2019 prospectus showed a loss its net income hid

Uber's S-1 and final prospectus show 2018 net income was positive only because of one-time gains, while the operating business kept losing money.

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The Paris Agreement set a pledge-and-review climate cycle

The 2015 treaty's own text ties its 2°C-to-1.5°C goal to five-yearly national pledges, reviewed first at a 2023 global stocktake.

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Amazon's first AWS segment disclosure showed a profit

Amazon's Q1 2015 10-Q broke out AWS as a segment for the first time, already earning more operating income per dollar of sales than retail.

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WHO's pandemic statement became a cross-sector reference date

WHO's 11 March 2020 characterisation of COVID-19 as a pandemic is a documented reference point other sectors' series can be dated against.

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AlphaGo beat a Go champion a decade ahead of forecasts

DeepMind's March 2016 match record and two Nature papers show AlphaGo's win, and how fast it was superseded, both mattered as signals.

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US work-from-home share roughly tripled between 2019 and 2021

Census survey data show the share primarily working from home rose from 5.7% to 17.9%, a different measure from an older BLS telework series.

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FDA's 2018 grant created a device class for autonomous AI

FDA's 11 April 2018 De Novo grant for IDx-DR created regulation 21 CFR 886.1100 for software that outputs a screening result without specialist review.

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Two crashes led regulators to ground a bestselling jet

Boeing's own 10-K dates the FAA's order and the $8.3 billion charge that followed the worldwide 737 MAX grounding.

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The ECB ended eight years of negative interest rates

The ECB's July 2022 decision raised all three key rates by 50 basis points, taking the deposit rate out of negative territory.

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Boston Dynamics changed hands in a six-month, $1.1 billion deal

Hyundai agreed in December 2020 and completed in June 2021 a deal valuing Boston Dynamics at $1.1 billion, taking an 80% stake from SoftBank.

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Chrome set a two-year clock on third-party cookies

Google's January 2020 post promised to phase out third-party cookies within two years, a timeline later revised repeatedly.

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